Investors love anniversaries and the spectacular figures that go with them, so we couldn't ignore this double anniversary: 1- Exactly 25 years ago, the internet bubble burst and the Nasdaq lost more than 75% of its value in the two years that followed! 2- Five years ago, on 12 March 2020, at the start of the pandemic, the S&P500 index reached a low of 2192 (by the summer of 2021 it had already doubled!) This is a good opportunity to remember the adage “Stock investors always underestimate trends!” And the funeral? It's that of the Trump-trades, which had a very short life. The US President election was expected to benefit the US dollar, US assets and US small mid-caps, and conversely to penalise the European and Chinese markets. The Chinese and European markets in particular are now outperforming the US market. In the Europe-US comparison over some 50 years, we can see that European markets have fallen very sharply since 2008, reflecting the growth differential between the two zones and the US supremacy in Tech. However, we can also see that the recent European market catch-up is derisory if we put it into long-term perspective. The stock market adage surely deserves a 2nd reminder: Investors always underestimate trends... We are discussing these topics as well as threats linked to trade wars.
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