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Trump 2.0, the revenge?

Hollywood is no stranger to producing more or less successful sequels to successful films. In many ways, Donald Trump’s return to the White House is reminiscent of these movie sequels, in which the hero returns in a new plot after a more or less long lapse of time. While it is still too early to […]

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US elections and the markets

US elections and the markets Investors are fond of historical data, of market observations over a period of time, and they tirelessly seek out repeatable ‘historical’ patterns. So, when asked ‘Are some months better than others for stock markets?  The answer is yes. There is no doubt that performance is not randomly distributed over the year. […]

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Quarterly Outlook

Fifty basis points and an anniversary

Fifty basis points and an anniversary Half a percentage point: after a long wait, the US Federal Reserve’s decision is finally known: US short term rateshave been cut to a range of 4.75 to 5%. To say that the news had been expected would be an understatement. Jerome Powel’s speech was then heavily scrutinized and […]

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Summer Volmageddon

Summer Volmageddon August has now ended with the US markets at their highest levels ever after a circa 2% rise for the month, US inflation figures published in mid-August are back below 3%, the September rate cut now seems to be on track, and Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hall symposium reassured the last worriers. For someone […]

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No Olympic truce for financial markets

No Olympic truce for financial markets Last month, we made lengthy comments on the French political situation and the uncertainties created in the wake of the 1st round election results. Not surprisingly, no single party or coalition were able to secure an absolute majority after the 2nd round results, the finish order came nonetheless a […]

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Quarterly Outlook

Elections and Financial Markets

Elections and Financial Markets Just as the French were getting ready to buy tickets for the Olympic Games, or at least turn on their TVs, Emmanuel Macron’s surprise dissolution of the French parliament in the wake of the European elections stole the headlines from the French press, and often from the economic news of the […]

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Cycle and Seasonal Effects

Cycle and Seasonal Effects Despite a few bumps at the end of the month, May ended on a solid note for many asset classes. Equity markets soared to new highs, led by the major US indices; the S&P500 and Nasdaq100. Chinese equities, which have long been forgotten by the current bull market, look as if […]

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When history rhymes…

When history rhymes… In the not-too-distant past, when Alan Greenspan was still playing the Sphynx at the Federal Reserve, the Fed model was very much in vogue. Younger readers who have only been following the markets for a couple of decades may be unfamiliar with this partially obsolete concept. The idea behind the Fed model […]

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Time to question US exceptionalism?

Time to question US exceptionalism? This political theme, inspired by the theory of manifest destiny, starts from the premise that the United States, because of its history and its democracy, has a special role to play in the Concert of Nations. Rarely has this set of ideas seemed so topical either from a geopolitical, economical […]

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